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Human Resource Development Review, Vol. 3, No. 4, 301-325 (2004)
DOI: 10.1177/1534484304270637

A Theoretical Model of Scenario Planning

Thomas J. Chermack

Pennsylvania State University

This article attempts to address a lack of theory-based models in scenario-planning practice. By using Dubin’s 1978 quantitative theory-building methodology, this article provides a theoretical model of scenario planning. To clarify, several critical elements of scenario planning are proposed as well as how they are related, in what environments they operate, and under what circumstances. In addition, some logical consequences are offered based on the constructed model. Finally, the implications of the model for human resource development research, practice, and theory are discussed.

Key Words: scenario planning • scenarios/theory • theoretical model


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